Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 89,500 Jobs in September, Employment Forecast Strengthens

Texas added 89,500 jobs in September, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 31,300 jobs in August for a total of 416,000 jobs added this year to date.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, using a top-down model based on national forecasts, COVID-19 hospitalizations and oil futures prices, the Texas Employment Forecast estimates that jobs will increase by 5.1% in 2021, with an 80% confidence band of 4.6 to 5.6%.

This is an increase from the 4.6% estimated with the release of the August data.

"With COVID-19 hospitalizations in Texas declining since early September, leisure and hospitality and retail jobs have bounced back strongly," Keith Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist, said. "Jobs in the energy sector also grew strongly as oil prices remained well above break-even levels. While consumer demand remains strong, the strength of job growth is somewhat surprising given both labor market tightness and supply-chain challenges faced by businesses. Supply-chain issues likely damped growth in September as 64.5% of contacts in our business surveys reported having supply-chain disruptions, up from 61% in June."

Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report are that based on the forecast, 626,600 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2021 will be 13 million.

The Dallas Fed said reported that the Texas Leading Index increased strongly for the second consecutive month, and unemployment rates in September declined in Fort Worth-Arlington, Houston, and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission. They stayed the same in Austin-Round Rock, Dallas-Plano-Irving, El Paso and San Antonio-New Braunfels, and they increased in Brownsville-Harlingen and Laredo.

The Texas unemployment rate declined from 5.9% in August to 5.6% in September.

Additional information about the Texas Employment Forecast, seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data, and metro unemployment rates may be found on DallasFed.org.