Ahead by five runs with one out and no one on in the bottom of the eighth inning, the Texas Rangers had a 98.8 percent probability of beating the New York Yankees, extending their winning streak to five and improving to 21-6 in June.
Up by four runs in the middle of the ninth, they still had a 98.2 percent win probability, according to Fangraphs.
The Yankees defied the odds.
Brian McCann hit a tying, three-run homer off Sam Dyson, Starlin Casto walked and Didi Gregorius capped a six-run inning with his two-run shot, lifting the Yankees over the Rangers 9-7 on Wednesday night.
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"Threw some quality pitches down in the zone and they got hit," said Dyson, who blew a save for the second time in 18 chances. "I kind of came in and let everybody down."
Last Friday's meltdown against Boston was just a prelude: In that one, Texas led 6-0 in the fourth, 7-2 in the sixth and 7-4 in the ninth before losing 8-7.
In this one, Texas opened a 5-1 lead in the third against Masahiro Tanaka when Nomar Mazara, a 21-year-old rookie who is the youngest position player in the majors, hit a three-run double and scored on Prince Fielder's single off a diving Rob Refsnyder at first.
Rougned Odor added his 15th homer in the sixth, an opposite-field drive to left, and Adrian Beltre hit an opposite-field homer to right in the eighth off Luis Cessa (1-0), opening a 7-2 lead.
"We've been really good at closing those games out," Rangers manager Jeff Banister said.
McCann hit a solo homer in the eighth off Cesar Ramos. Matt Bush came in and escaped a two-on jam, and the 30-year-old rookie, seeking his first big league save, was left in for the ninth.
"We're trying to stay away from the four-run type situation for Sam," Banister said. "We were going to take Matt out, but obviously with the right-hander coming up, with the nine-hole hitter coming up, it's obviously a situation we feel good about him in that matchup."
Refsnyder singled leading off, Jacoby Ellsbury followed with a walk on a 3-2 pitch, and Dyson (1-2) relieved.
"Maybe next time, I'll just try to throw the ball down the middle instead of trying to paint the corner," Bush said.
With Dyson making his AL-leading 41st appearance, Brett Gardner singled, and Refsnyder came home when center fielder Ian Desmond bobbled the ball for an error.
After Alex Rodriguez lined out, McCann lined a 97 mph, 1-0 fastball on the inside of the plate above the knees and sent it about six rows deep into the seats in right field. Castro walked on five pitches, and Gregorius drove Dyson's first offering, an outside changeup at the knees, into the first row above the scoreboard in right, where the ball ricocheted off a fan's glove and back onto the field.
"I didn't know it was gone like right away. After I stepped on first, that's when I saw it," Gregorius said. "I didn't smile because I didn't want to smile, but as soon as I rounded third, see all the guys there, everybody cheering, I had to smile right there."
Rangers starter Nick Martinez, who pitched in the Bronx with Fordham, allowed two runs, three hits and five walks in five-plus innings. He threw just 38 of 84 pitches for strikes, prompting Banister to conclude he "seemed to have a little moxie."
"Some of those guys were more intentional than others," Martinez said. "Just one of those nights where you have to battle."
Gold Glove: Beltre, a four-time Glove Glove third baseman, made a nice stab on Rodriguez's short-hop grounder to his left in the first inning and threw to second, starting a double play.
Trainer's Room: Rangers RHP Yu Darvish threw 46 pitches in a simulated game and could return to the rotation shortly after the All-Star break. Sidelined by shoulder discomfort since a June 8 outing against Houston, Darvish threw all his pitches during the three-inning game. If he feels OK on Thursday, he probably will make a minor league rehab start early next week.
Up Next: Yankees RHP Michael Pineda (3-7) starts Thursday's series finale against RHP A.J. Griffin (3-0). Pineda is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last four starts. Griffin returned from a stint on the DL caused by shoulder soreness and allowed two runs over 4 1/3 innings against Boston last Saturday.