If you're a family with a high school senior about to graduate, chances are you're busy filling out college applications.
Or maybe not.
Across the country, college enrollment is down.
The numbers have been dropping for the last decade, but the pandemic helped accelerate that decline.
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According to a recent report released by the National Student Clearinghouse Center, there are more than one million fewer students enrolled in college now than in 2019 before the pandemic began. It’s down by nearly 3 million in the last 10 years.
Public universities and community colleges saw the biggest declines. Analysts said this huge drop in enrollment hasn't been seen in over 50 years.
"[The pandemic] turned the traditional path from high school to college to a career – it's turned that on its head. There are so many different paths right now,” said Ryan Lufkin, VP of Marketing for Instructure, the creator of online learning platform Canvas.
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Much of the reason behind the decline can be traced back to money constraints and increasing costs. The pandemic has also set forth a chain of events leading to inflation and financial strains on families, which leaves less money in the end for college.
Minimum wage jobs have also increased dramatically, making it more appealing for young people graduating from high school and looking to earn a paycheck fast to support themselves or loved ones. According to federal labor data, those payouts were up 15% in Dec. 2021 compared to the year prior in 2020.
Companies like Amazon, Walmart and Target are also offering free college tuition for employees as long as they continue working for them while taking classes. This might alter or extend whatever traditional route a student might have had in pursuing their futures.
"Before the pandemic, we were already seeing a decline in traditional undergraduate enrollment at college universities, about the ninth or tenth year of declining enrollment. And so we're already seeing a lot of students looking for alternatives or questioning the value of a college degree in certain ways,” said Lufkin.
Canvas, one of the main virtual learning platforms used by districts and universities in North Texas and the country, has been keeping track of trends over the years, especially as more students shifted over to online learning during the pandemic.
"The most recent data is showing that students don't want to give up a lot of that flexibility they got during the pandemic. They want a combination of online courses and in-person courses, so they get that college experience but they have the flexibility to work and have families,” said Lufkin.
But he added there’s potentially more to the numbers that are presented in these enrollment reports.
“The metric is generally full-time enrollment – and that is how colleges universities have kind of always measured it,” said Lufkin.
He said that data is not always including all the nuances involved with online enrollment, part-time enrollment, part-time online enrollment and even just certification programs that have become popular options during the pandemic.
"It used to be the case that if you went to college, you are guaranteed a high paying job, no matter what your major was. And now, it's much more specific to what skills you come out of college with. So, students are being a lot more specific with and a lot more intentional with the programs they choose,” said Lufkin. “And because of that, a lot of universities are doing a lot of partnerships with companies to make sure that they are meeting the skills gap."
Lufkin explained that a silver lining from the pandemic could be the acceleration in improved technology for online learning, opening up new doors and flexibility for college or job opportunities that people didn't have before.
“There's so many different paths, one of the cool things I love is that it's brought new light to the skills programs,” said Lufkin. “Google, for instance, is offering their own certification programs that they offer online as a replacement for a bachelor's degree.”
Lufkin said schools are also looking into specific programs for trade and industry jobs like welding, engineering, information technology, and other sectors that are in dire need of workers.
“There's so many different schools in Texas specifically that are looking to evolve their programs, really focusing on this kind of open space that we've got. We’ve got a kind of an opportunity to start fresh and evolve the traditional offering, and so many college universities are actually embracing that,” he said.
Universities are also offering certifications that people can take online even if they aren’t a full-time enrolled student on campus. A CNBC report chronicles how a 26-year old was able to triple her salary to $100,000 by tweaking her resume through Coursera certification courses.
"Beyond the traditional degree in saying, I've got a bachelor's degree or master's degree, how do I show that I've got a certificate or skills program to show I've developed these skills? So there's a lot of effort across higher education to do stackable credentials,” said Lufkin.
60x30 in Texas
With the changes, there is an ongoing effort to increase the number of degrees earned by Texans to help the workforce.
In 2000, the state created the Texas Higher Education Accountability System in an effort to track data and maintain oversight of the performance of public universities and colleges across Texas.
In 2015, a new program was established to help increase the number of degrees and certifications being earned in the state of Texas, as a need was recognized for more talent to accommodate changes in the workforce.
The program, called 60x30TX, provides resources and guidance for public universities and community colleges to meet four specific goals that are more relevant now than ever:
- To have at least 60% of Texans – ages 25 to 34 – to have a certificate or degree by 2030.
- By 2030, at least 550,000 students in that year will complete a certificate, associate, bachelor’s, or master’s from an institution of higher education in Texas.
- By 2030, all graduates from Texas public institutions of higher education will have completed programs with identified marketable skills.
- By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wages for graduates of Texas public institutions.
Each goal is tracked through data updated on the program's website.
According to that data, degree completions increased by nearly 30,000 more degrees from 2016 to 2019. There were still slight increases in 2020 and 2021, despite the pandemic.
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The 60x30 program is also pushing for more support for students to be able to finish degrees quicker.
If it takes a student six years to graduate – which Lufkin said is common – that's two more years of debt, made even more difficult with mounting costs experienced by families since 2020.
That has prompted colleges and universities to create their own programs to help students, something every parent and student should ask their academic advisor about.
“One of the big things that colleges and universities have done is really helped create student success programs,” said Lufkin. “Making sure students are on the path to graduation in four years and have better access to resources on what jobs are available and what courses are available so that they can map these to actual outcomes and actual career paths. That's a big change we've seen the last couple of years.”
