UTSW

UTSW Infectious Disease Faculty Present Latest COVID-19 Forecast

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Infectious disease faculty with the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center presented the latest forecasting model data regarding the recent surge in cases and hospitalizations Wednesday afternoon.

James Cutrell, M.D. – Associate Professor, Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, and Susana Lazarte, M.D. – Assistant Professor, Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine delivered the presentation.

Infectious disease faculty with the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center presented the latest forecasting model data regarding the recent surge in cases and hospitalizations Wednesday afternoon and said hospitalizations for the disease this fall could reach the peak seen earlier this year.

The presentation can be seen above. The presentation can be seen in Spanish here.

The model projected that at the current pace of vaccinations the levels of hospitalizations in October could approach the numbers seen in the surge in the first months of this year and substantially higher than those during the surge last summer.

"The predicted increases are partially due to climbing hospitalization rates," UTSW said. "This is likely attributable to the increasing prevalence of the Delta variant in the region, which has been linked to more severe disease in some studies. The increasing number of new cases of COVID-19 and subsequent hospitalizations also reflects the large numbers of individuals who are not yet vaccinated and therefore particularly susceptible to infection."

UTSW said the higher numbers could be avoided if vaccination volumes return to levels seen earlier this year.

UTSW faculty presented information about the following:

  • Trends/Latest modeling data
  • Understanding herd immunity
  • Rising number of hospitalizations among unvaccinated
  • How to address vaccine hesitancy issues/concerns
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