Hours away from the Iowa caucuses, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and former Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) make their final pitch to voters trying to dent the lead of former President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination.
In the week before the caucuses, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) dropped out of the race.
“I'm going to make sure that in no way do I enable Donald Trump to ever be President United States again,” said Christie after dropping out.
There are six Republicans left including Trump, DeSantis, Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, pastor Ryan Binkley, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. The results of the caucus on Monday will largely determine who’s in second place, DeSantis or Haley.
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The former president is certainly the clear favorite but the race for second is getting interesting.
In the latest NBC News / Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses, Haley surprised many by coming in second. The numbers come with some caveats. According to the pollster, many Haley supporters may be turning to her, not because they love her as a candidate but because they don't like the others.
“There is underlying weakness here,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told NBC News. “If turnout is low, it seems to me that a disproportionate share of her supporters might stay at home.”
Lone Star Politics
Covering politics throughout the state of Texas.
According to the Iowa poll, which Selzer has been conducting over the last three decades, Trump gets first-choice support from 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers — followed by Haley at 20% support, DeSantis at 16% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%.
Haley’s 20% first-choice support has her overperforming with independents and people with college educations. Half of Haley’s supporters identify as either independents (39%) or Democrats (11%) — significantly different from the poll’s overall makeup, which stands at 69% Republicans, 23% independents and 5% Democrats among likely GOP caucusgoers.
During the final debate before Iowa caucusgoers decide, DeSantis and Haley largely criticized each other.
"We don’t need another mealy-mouthed politician who just tells you what she thinks you want to hear, to try to get into office only to do her donors bidding,” said DeSantis.
“He’s only mad about the donors because the donors used to be with him but now they’re no longer with him now. That’s because he’s upset about the fact that his campaign is exploding,” said Haley.
Trump was invited to debate but again didn’t show up, instead having a forum on friendly FOX News.
With a strong finish in Iowa and possibly a victory in the next contest in New Hampshire, Haley has the opportunity to make the race for the Republican nomination more competitive. The winner will likely face incumbent President Joe Biden in November.
HALEY WOULD BE THE FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT
If elected, Haley would be the first woman elected President of the United States. Lone Star Politics spoke with NBC News’s Ali Vital, who covers Haley on the campaign trail and wrote about women candidates after the 2020 election called “Electable: Why America Hasn’t Put a Woman in the White House… Yet.”
“She’s running as a woman in a really fascinating way, especially for a Republican. When I wrote "Electable" it was from the perspective of a field of four Democratic women all running,” said Vitali, “On the Republican side the realities of talking about gender, race, identity overall, the base really hates that.”
Haley is not overtly campaigning on wanting to be the first woman president according to Vitali. Instead, it's a secondary reference, like responding to criticism from the "fellas," her other all-male opponents.
“She’ll make references to the fact that she is a woman who broke barriers as the first female governor of South Carolina. She’ll make references to kicking back against her opponents - but in heels. But she’s not using it as a selling point, saying ‘Hey, elect me because I’m female.’ It’s this really delicate dance that she has to do,” said Vitali.
Monday at 7 p.m., representatives for the different candidates will stand in front of crowds scattered across caucus locations in Iowa and make their pitch. After the pitches, Iowa Republicans will do a secret ballot and decide who wins the first nominating contest for the 2024 election.
