ERCOT calls for conservation, warns tight grid conditions could lead to energy emergency

ERCOT asked Texans to voluntarily reduce electricity use on Thursday, warning tight grid conditions could have lead to an energy emergency.

The notice was in effect Thursday, Aug. 24 from 3 p.m. to 10 p.m.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. (ERCOT) the agency that manages the state's power grid, forecasted the demand to be nearly 85,000 MW on Thursday afternoon and evening. The demand forecast dashboard showed a narrowing gap between demand and expected available capacity getting dangerously close after 6 p.m. as solar generation tends to drop off.

"ERCOT is not experiencing emergency conditions at this time, but forecasts are showing a high potential to enter emergency operations this evening because of expected low wind-power generation and high demand, ERCOT said in a statement at about noon Thursday. "Due to low wind-power generation and high demand, operating reserves for ERCOT are expected to be low for several hours this afternoon into the evening. As a result, ERCOT is asking Texans to conserve electricity use, if safe to do so."

ERCOT also requested all government agencies (including city and county offices) to implement all programs to reduce energy use at their facilities.

The Public Utility Commission of Texas said ERCOT is also working with out-of-state Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Market Participants to secure additional power generation capacity.

On Monday, ERCOT issued a Weather Watch for Wednesday through Sunday, Aug. 24-27, warning higher temperatures would lead to higher electrical demand and the potential for lower power reserves. When the gap between available supply and demand gets closer together, ERCOT will ask Texans to reduce electricity use to prevent overloading the grid.

Four times this month and 12 times this summer, Texans have reset the all-time record for power consumption. The most recent record of 85,435 MW was set on Aug. 10, shattering the record set the day before of 83,961 MW. The forecasted high for Thursday afternoon was more than 86,700 MW.

Experts all over the state continue to watch our energy demand very closely. Joshua Rhodes is a research scientist at UT Austin. His said there’s been a much larger jump in the amount of power we’re consuming than we’ve seen in the past.

“If you look back over the past four or five years, we’ve saw about 1500 megawatts of peak demand growth,” said Rhodes. “This year we’ve seen 6,000. So, we’ve just seen a lot more growth in demand this year over last year than we’ve seen previously.”

Rhodes said if we all collectively conserve energy, we can help stay out of the orange and red zones.

“So, there are three tiers of emergency levels that ERCOT has and we’re not even in the first tier yet.  And then we have to get the third tier before we see those rolling outages,” he said.

Dr. Daniel Cohan an associate professor of environmental engineering at Rice University. He said part of the issue is the fact that Texas exists on an energy island.

“We’ve made that choice that has some risks that come with it. And we’ve also not done enough to be more efficient to make our demand more flexible,” said Cohan. “Because of those choices or mistakes, we’ve made over the years that means when conditions get tight, we’re going to be vulnerable and be at the risks for blackouts.”

As for Friday being a repeat of Thursday, Cohan said it really does depend on some conservation, which gives ERCOT an extra buffer. It’s also important that the power plants hold up under these conditions.

WHAT CAN I DO TO HELP?

Texans can conserve energy by raising the thermostat by a degree or two, avoiding the use of large appliances, turning off and unplugging non-essential lights and appliances, and shutting off pool pumps during peak hours.

Find more energy-saving tips at ercot.com/txans.

WHY THE REQUEST TO VOLUNTARILY REDUCE USAGE?

• Extreme Heat: Much of Texas is seeing a return to extreme temperatures today.
• Record Demand: Texas is seeing near-record demand due to the heat.
• Solar: Solar generation declines into the evening hours, before completely going offline at sunset.
• Wind: Lower wind generation is forecasted for this afternoon and evening during peak demand times.