ERCOT's calls for conservation on Monday and Tuesday have expired with record winter demands set each day. The conditions that led to both calls are expected again on Wednesday morning and another call for conservation could be issued.
The outlook shows that system-wide demand is expected to be higher on Wednesday at 8 a.m., but supply and demand forecasts estimate the grid has enough supply.
ERCOT issued their first request for conservation on Sunday for early Monday, Jan. 15, from 6 a.m. until 10 a.m. From 9 a.m. until 10 a.m. Monday, a new unofficial winter demand record was set with 75,559 MW. During the next hour, from 10 a.m. to 11 a.m., that record was toppled with 75,988 MW of demand. That record was reset again on Tuesday when the demand jumped to 78,138 MW from 7 a.m. to 8 a.m., during the conservation window.
The conservation request for both Monday and Tuesday was due to freezing temperatures from an Arctic blast that dropped temperatures to around 11 degrees overnight, very high electricity demand, and unseasonably low wind.
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ERCOT said they avoided emergency operations thanks to the conservation efforts by Texas residents and businesses, combined with additional grid reliability tools. During the conservation window, ERCOT also asked all government agencies (including city and county offices) to implement all programs to reduce energy use at their facilities.
ERCOT is expecting similar conditions on Wednesday, Jan. 17, and said it will continue to closely monitor conditions and keep the public informed through its communication channels.
The agency also said the request for conservation did not indicate it was experiencing emergency conditions. If anyone is currently experiencing an outage, ERCOT said it is local and unrelated to overall grid reliability.
In a conservation appeal, Texans are asked to:
- Lower your thermostat by a degree or two, if safe to do so.
- Avoid using large appliances (i.e., washer/dryer etc.).
- Turn off and unplug non-essential lights and appliances.
- Set pool pumps to run early morning or overnight; shut off during peak hours.
- Commercial Business: Turn off any lights and office equipment (or place in sleep mode) when space not in use.
- Commercial Business: Turn off air-conditioning/heating outside of business hours.
ENERGY CONSULTANT WORRIES ABOUT 'CONSERVATION FATIGUE'
An energy consultant said ERCOT should be even more specific when issuing conservation calls so that Texans head requests when they are needed most because there is a small window of time Tuesday morning when the margin between projected supply and demand will be razor thin.
“I think [ERCOT] should be more specific. It looks like the tightest time is around 7:30 to 8,” said Doug Lewin, energy consultant and author of The Texas Energy and Power Newsletter.
Lewin is cautiously optimistic that ERCOT may have ‘over-projected’ to err on the side of caution as it appears the operator did for Monday’s grid condition projections that were not met.
“I just think they really need to be precise with the way they call in,” he said. “In the summertime, you sometimes get these four, five, six-hour conservation calls. It’s not very actionable. You gotta give people a narrow window.”
This is also the 13th call for conservation in 18 months, according to Lewin.
Texans, he fears, could also become complacent and feel 'conservation call fatigue’ and begin to ignore calls to cut down on electricity use.
Lewin urges the Public Utility Commission of Texas to act more aggressively when it comes to allowing small businesses and homeowners to enroll in on-demand reduction responses.
Large customers like big box stores and steel mills take part in programs that provide incentives to cut energy consumption on demand.
“The PUC has taken some steps to start to change that but it’s pretty slow. It’s definitely time,” he said. “It helps people to reduce their bills and people are struggling out there right now.”
This could lead to fewer conservation calls, he added.
Lewin applauds cities like Plano for voluntarily taking steps to ease early morning demand on the grid. Plano will delay opening recreation centers and libraries until 10 a.m., according to city spokesman Steve Stoler.
“That’s a noble thing,” said Lewin. “If enough people do it, it can make a difference.”
All other city facilities will open on time.
The city’s public works department will also reduce water pumping in the morning while keeping it within necessary limits for public health and safety.
Lewin says this week’s winter storm, in terms of temperatures and ice accumulation, is more in line with Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 and not February 2021’s Winter Storm Yuri.
The state has not yet been forced to perform rolling outages since the February 2021 storm, according to Lewin, and it’s almost impossible to say if and when it will happen.
He credits improvements made since the deadly winter storm for a better outlook if and when rolling outages are necessary.
“It if happens tomorrow, which I don’t think it will, but if it happens tomorrow it would be small in magnitude, not millions and millions and millions of Texans cut off,” he said. “Maybe tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands and not for days but for a minute or an hour or two.”
Artic Blast
Why the Request to Reduce Usage?
- Weather. Most of Texas is seeing extremely cold temperatures for an extended period of time.
- Demand. Texas is experiencing record-breaking demand due to the cold weather.
- Solar. Solar generation isn't available in the early morning hours, which is a peak demand time during winter, and slowly ramps up as the sun rises.
- Wind. Wind generation is forecasted to be lower than seasonally expected in the early morning hours.
Peak Demand
- In 2023, January peak demand reached 65,632 MW, with the current all-time peak demand record of 85,508 MW set on August 10, 2023. The all-time winter peak demand record of 74,525 MW was set on Dec. 23, 2022, in the 7-8 a.m. hour during Winter Storm Elliott.
Consumer Assistance
- Public Utility Commission of Texas Hotline: 1-888-782-8477
Stay Updated
- Sign up for TXANS notifications on the TXANS webpage.
- Download the ERCOT Mobile App for additional notifications: iOS | Android.
- Monitor real-time and extended conditions at ercot.com.
- Subscribe to ERCOT Emergency Alerts, which are not sent through TXANS notifications.
- Follow ERCOT on Twitter (@ERCOT_ISO), Facebook (Electric Reliability Council of Texas), and LinkedIn (ERCOT).
