Democrats' Iffy Shot at Retaking House Explains O'Rourke and Castro Interest in Cruz Senate Seat

WASHINGTON — Midterm elections are almost always unkind to the president's party. Buyer's remorse has set in. Voters want to send a message and vent and punish someone for whatever disappointment they have over everything that didn't yet get fixed.The more unpopular the president, the more likely and acute the losses. Only three times since the Great Depression has the party that won the White House two years earlier managed to gain ground in U.S. House elections. The other 18 times, the outcomes ranged from bad to politically catastrophic.The fact that Donald Trump is the least popular new president in history should add to Democrats' optimism heading into 2018. But past performance is not guarantee of future results, which may explain why two rising stars in Texas — Reps. Beto O'Rourke and Joaquin Castro — are willing to give up a shot at serving in the majority for a change.O'Rourke has already declared he's running for Ted Cruz's Senate seat. He's in his third term and had already promised to leave the House after four. So he may have less to lose than Castro, who says he'll decide by the end of April.If Democrats really had such a great shot at retaking the House, would they be so eager to give up safe seats?"The odds that Democrats take the majority are slimmer than the odds that someone could beat Ted Cruz," said Harold Cook, a Texas Democratic strategist, noting that thanks to gerrymandering nationwide, precious few districts are teed up to swing with the political mood."It would have to be like the biggest rout ever. The math isn't there in enough districts," he said.Democrats lost control of the House in the 2010 midterms, when the tea party rose up in backlash to Barack Obama and Obamacare. Democrats lost 63 seats — the worst shellacking for a president's party since 1938, when Franklin Roosevelt's Democrats lost 71 seats.  Continue reading...