Current officeholders, big campaign accounts hold advantage ahead of primary elections

Just eight weeks ago, Texans were celebrating Christmas. The 2024 election was far away from most people's thoughts.

Now, here it is. There are two weeks of early voting and then election day on March 5. And believe it or not - there's actually more drama than usual this primary.

Usually incumbent officeholders are near shoe-ins for reelection. This year is different for some, especially a handful of rural Republican races, because large campaign donations are flowing in against them.

Tuesday, early voting begins in the races for the races, which will largely determine who's in control of the state legislature. Most of the districts are drawn to favor the incumbent, many don't even have viable challengers. A handful of Republican incumbents, however, have challengers supported by Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton.

In Texas, most of the 31-member Senate districts and the 150-member House district are not competitive in November. Meaning less than two million people who show up during the March primary will dictate the decisions for a state of nearly 30 million people.

The low turnout and lack of term limits usually favor the incumbents. Gov. Abbott and General Paxton are scrambling the playbook in some areas, which may lead to a handful of officeholders losing to newcomers.

Paxton is out to unseat more than fifty House Republicans who voted to impeach him for bribery and abuse of power allegations. The Senate cleared the Attorney General but has a bar complaint, an April criminal trial in Harris County, and an FBI investigation looking into whistleblower allegations. Paxton, up until recently, denied all wrongdoing until his legal team decided not to contest the facts in a separate but similar lawsuit. He has pleaded not guilty to the criminal allegations.

Several Republicans like Rep. Matt Shaheen, R -Plano, who voted to impeach Paxton, told NBC 5 on Lone Star Politics they are confident going into the primary election.

Governor Greg Abbott, on the other hand, is better known and better liked according to a recent poll by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. He has way more campaign funds available as well, including a record-breaking $6 million donation from an out-of-state donor aiming to let families use public school dollars for private and home schools.

Abbott wants to knock off more than twenty House Republicans who voted against his school choice voucher priority because they believed it was not a wise use of tax dollars.

But if the challengers to House incumbents don't have a big name supporting them or major dollars backing them, good luck. The fact is most people don't pay attention to politics in February and early March. Challengers need those names and money to break through to people who may not even know an election is happening.

If ten out of the more than fifty races end up with a new person in office, that will be looked at as a major win for Abbott and Paxton by political insiders.

“If you follow Texas politics closely you are already somewhat of an outlier," said Joshua Blank, research director at the Texas politics project.

On a good, attention-grabbing year for politics, Blank tells NBC 5 that between ten and fifteen percent of registered voters will show up to vote in the primary elections.

“Unless the incumbent is already vulnerable because of multiple scandals or issues that have been raised to the level to become well known throughout their district, it is pretty unlikely that a challenger is going to be able to knock them off," said Blank.

Year after year, Republican primary voters care about immigration and border security as their top issues. Paxton's impeachment vote and Abbott's school reforms may not make a big dent in voters' attitudes, according to Blank.

“Polling indicates that these are not top issues for Republican primary voters. They are not top of mind for them, and they are looking like they are not basing their vote off of either the Governor’s or the Attorney General’s revenge tours," said Blank.

Gov. Abbott may have the best chance against eight or nine of the sixteen Republicans who bucked the governor and chose to run again for reelection. General Paxton probably has a smaller number of races his challengers can win.

While Republican control of state government makes the GOP primary more important, there are key races in the Democratic primary as well; such as the race for U.S. Senate candidate to take on Sen. Ted Cruz in November and a rare inner-party challenge in Dallas.

According to a recent column by co-host of Lone Star Politics, Gromer Jeffers from the Dallas Morning News, the primary decides who will win most of the general election races in November and bolsters the two-party system and polarization.

Candidates are not incentivized to talk to the middle of the electorate because after they win the primary, they usually walk to reelection in a district that is designed for one-party control.

In 2022, less than 18% of voters participated in the primaries, while almost 46% voted in November.