December Outlook Calls for Slightly Above Normal Temperatures in North Texas

Now that December is officially upon us, let's look at the outlook for the month.

Whether you're among those hoping for a white Christmas or would rather spend the holidays basking in the sun, one group is sure to be disappointed.

The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is calling for near-normal (or slightly above-normal) temperatures in North Texas this month. Well above-normal temperatures are expected across western, Central, and South Texas, and the Gulf coast states.

Meanwhile, the coldest air (not surprisingly) will likely remain confined to the northern third of the country.

As for precipitation, the outlook is near normal (or slightly below normal) for North Texas.

West Texas looks to receive well below normal precipitation. Let's hope things don't get too dry, as we certainly don't want a serious drought situation to return.

The good news for the western U.S. is that precipitation is expected to be above normal out there, which is something they haven't experienced in years.

In case you're wondering how these long-range forecasts are derived, they are largely based on the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The current phase is still considered a La Niña. This will be the third La Niña winter in a row.

A La Niña pattern is defined by colder than normal ocean water in the eastern Pacific. Since the ocean and atmosphere are interconnected, these colder waters have an effect on weather patterns over the U.S. (Below is an image from NOAA, depicting the typical weather associated with a La Niña pattern).

Since last year was also a La Nina winter, it's worth mentioning that December 2021 was the warmest on record in DFW with an average temperature (high and low) of 61.3. This smashed the previous record of 54.0.

Below is a summary of a normal December in DFW. We are expecting near normal, or slightly higher, temperatures than these and near normal, or slightly lower, precipitation. So overall, this year doesn't fare well for a white Christmas and more favorable for those hoping to bask in the sun.