The National Hurricane Center is watching a trough of low pressure over Georgia that could form a tropical system and bring heavy rain and rough surf to the Texas coast.
Forecast models are showing this trough dropping south into the Gulf of Mexico where an area of showers and thunderstorms could develop. These storms could start to rotate around a broad area of low pressure, forming a tropical system.
As of Monday afternoon, the NHC gives it an 80% chance of happening within the next five days.
This disturbance will provide areas along the Gulf Coast with heavy rain and rough surf this week.
Long range forecast models have this tropical disturbance impacting parts Texas by the weekend. If a tropical depression is able to form, it will drift west in the Gulf of Mexico and could make a landfall in Texas or Louisiana. I emphasize the word "could" because a lot could change in the days ahead.
Tropical storms in the past have formed in the Gulf of Mexico, but with this situation there are still a lot of unknowns and models have not come into agreement on exactly what will happen. If a storm does develop, it would be the second named storm of the season and would given the name, Barry.
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