Science with Samantha

Science With Samantha: What Does ‘Chance of Rain' Mean?

What is Probability of Precipitation?

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When you hear that there is a chance for rain in North Texas, what exactly does that mean?

It can be confusing because everyone seems to have a different idea of what rain chances mean.

According to the National Weather Service, it means there is a chance of receiving at least 0.01” of rain for the area forecast at a specific time. 

For example, if we are forecasting a 40% chance for rain between 1-3 p.m. in North Texas, it doesn’t mean 40% of the area will see rain. Everyone in North Texas has a 40% chance of getting some rain between 1-3 p.m.

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