It's Fall From Over

Scorecard

Turning Stone Resort Championship
October 2-5, 2008
Tournament #43 of 48
Atunyote GC [Vernon, NY]
Par 36-36=72 - 7,482 yards
Years hosted: 2006-present
Purse: $6,000,000 (Winner-$1,080,000)
Field size: 132
Cut: Top 70 & ties after 36 holes (if >78 golfers are tied, another cut of Top 70 & ties will occur after 54 holes)

Starter

With positioning on the money list the primary focus of the Fall Series, this week's trivia question takes a look at specific levels of achievement. Since 1990, name the only golfer to have finished exactly 1st, 30th and 125th on the money list.

HINT: He led the money list in more than one season since 1990. ANSWER is at "The 19th Hole."

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First Tee

If you are reading this, either you're fantasy league includes the Fall Series or you're in the top one percent of avid golf fans. Like many of you, I fall into both categories, of course, and will be dissecting all of the events remaining on the schedule as if they were in the heart of the summer. Meanwhile, since the three Internet games that Ned plays have ended, "Ned Said, ." has been filed away for the season, although his final ranks are provided in two of the games for you to compare your finishes.

Last year, the Turning Stone was played September 20-23, two weeks earlier than this year's edition. As a result, the field was sliced from 144 to 132 to compensate for the reduction in sunlight. But if it looks like a strong field, it is. With a meaty $6 million purse, it's the richest tournament of the Fall Series.

Atunyote GC is right out there for the taking. Tom Fazio's large fairways and greens (remember, it's a resort) will lure aggressive risk-reward play, particularly with wet conditions forecast. Long hitters usually rise above the ball-strikers in this formula, which makes it extremely unlikely for Steve Flesch to successfully defend his title. Still, veteran ball-strikers will be fine this week. And Flesch averaged over 300 yards and ranked inside the Top 15 in driving distance a year ago, so handicapping the Turning Stone is no simple task.

Because the track underwent considerable change in advance of last year's event, I'm ignoring results from 2006, when it was played opposite the British Open (and with a considerably weaker field). That was the year when En-Joie GC was flooded, leading to the move to Atunyote. This year, the lush rough is already at four inches and the greens will be rolling at 11.5 on the Stimpmeter (when dry), which means that this isn't even last year's Turning Stone, when Flesch triumphed with a score of 18-under-par. Incidentally, the only golfer from the inaugural Notah Begay III Foundation Challenge contested here on August 26 is NB3 himself. Camilo Villegas (winner), Vijay Singh and Mike Weir did not return for the PGA Tour stop this week.

Finally, for the remainder of the 2008 season, I will be focusing on the "Bubble Boys" - the guys that are fighting for their 2009 tour cards via the Top 125 on the money list. Look for this special new section immediately after the final installment of Ned Said, ".

The Elements

If the PGA Tour ever saunters up to Alaska for a late springtime event, it's likely it will encounter the kind of weather that will be the norm this week in upstate New York. The temperature will be challenged to hit 60 degrees at any point during the event. Golfers with early tee times will be lucky to go out in a fall chill of 45 degrees. This isn't unmanageable, particularly for the weekend warriors among us, but it is a tad unusual for the touring pros. Furthermore, there is a decent chance of showers during the first two rounds, which will make it feel raw. Steady westerly winds won't help either. Conditions will improve on the weekend, when the risk of rain decreases measurably and winds abate. Sunday is shaping up to look like a postcard.

(Last year, when the Turning Stone was played two weeks earlier, it was windy during the final round but dry throughout the week. The temperature rose into the upper 70s every day - hitting 80 in the second round - before "cooling" to a magnificent 72 for the final round. Keep this in mind when factoring in last year's results. Note the final round scoring average immediately below.)

Course Scoring Averages - 2007

Round 1 - 70.679
Round 2 - 69.892
Round 3 - 70.600
Round 4 - 72.557

Past Champions in the Field

YEAR: Golfer

2007: Steve Flesch
2006: John Rollins (B.C. Open)

In Defense

Steve Flesch. When Flesch tees it up in a field like this as a defending champion, he's going to play well. His most recent effort is a T-15 at the Deutsche Bank.
Projection: Top 25

Back-2-Back

Camilo Villegas is in Japan this week to defend his title at the Tokai Classic.

Champion

Dudley Hart. Local guy that will probably win the Comeback Player of the Year Award (if there is one). There wouldn't be a better story if he returned to the winner's circle for the first time since the 2000 Honda.

Top 5

Mathew Goggin. He's turning into Nicholas Thompson (or vice versa) due to his hit-or-miss volatility. Great wind player. Recently tacked up a T-4 at The Barclays. Really, the only thing that remains missing from his portfolio is a victory.

Woody Austin. Game's premier ball-striker found it again at the Viking, where he placed T-8. This is really his time of year, when he stands out like a lounge lizard shirt among pastel Izods. Oh, wait .

John Rollins. While Turning Stone has been modified since his 2006 victory, surely he has good feelings about returning to his most recent victory on tour. He also finished T-18 last year.

Dicky Pride. Now, all year, I've never selected a guy because I had a "feeling." Furthermore, those of you with whom I've communicated via email already know that I cringe when I hear/read predictions because someone has a "feeling." And while I don't have a "feeling" about Pride, when I noticed that he was in the field this week, he literally jumped off the page, like how those magazine clippings glowed for John Nash in "A Beautiful Mind." As much as I'd love to believe that I'm becoming one with the number, I'm sure it was just a late lunch sugar rush but for the only time this year, I'm plugging in a guy based on nothing logical. Sure, I could cite his T-8 at the Viking as "evidence" but why stick with tradition? And yes, I considered completely ignoring the moment but I wanted to preserve this for posterity in case he actually pays off. Of course, even if he does, it'll be a lucky guess. Dang it. C'mon, Dicky!

Top 10

Briny Baird. I know, you were probably expecting him even higher on my list. Well, he had a "rough" playoffs, posting just one Top 25 (T-21, Deutsche Bank) and failed to break par in any round at East Lake last week. Still, he has 14 Top 25s in 27 starts and finished T-18 at last year's Turning Stone.

Carl Pettersson. Finished T-5 a year ago and usually dominates in fields like this. Total feel player so completely ignore his stats. Long putters tend to work well on larger greens, which gives the Swede a slight advantage.

Eric Axley. Has cashed in 10 straight events to secure his 2009 card. Ranks 1st on tour in scrambling from the rough, which will be a valuable resource this week if he misses the fairway more than 43 percent of the time, his season average. That's a very realistic six fairways per round.

Jason Gore. What a year for the lovable lug. After dealing with the serious effects of Hashimoto's Disease (thyroid), his wife was set to give birth on the Sunday of the Viking Classic. I don't know how he did it but he managed a T-8 to get himself within one more Top 10 of nailing down a 2009 tour card. He's 1st in total driving, which allows for a healthy 16th in ball-striking.

Steve Allan. That T-4 at the Viking was his first Top 5 since losing in a playoff at the 2004 Reno-Tahoe. Hits it long and is 1st on tour in proximity to the hole from the rough. Also ranks 7th in GIR from lies off the fairway.

Top 25

Robert Allenby. In comparison to his first seven months, the Aussie has cooled recently, with just one Top 25 in his last five starts, at that was a solo 16th at the 30-player TOUR Championship. At 13th on the money list, no one in the field is ranked higher, so a Top 25 at best would almost be a disappointment this week. He's already on record as saying he's going to rejoin the European Tour to join in the Race to Dubai, so he might not make four starts like in last year's Fall Series.

Steve Marino. Birdie-maker should have a field day in soft conditions.

Kevin Streelman. You haven't forgotten about this guy, have you? It's hard to believe it took him almost six months to record his first Top 10 (T-10, Travelers); however, he's now cashed in 13 straight and will be seriously aiming for a victory in the Fall Series. Last year, just two non-winners broke through (George McNeill and Daniel Chopra). You could make an argument that if just two were going to match it this fall, it would be Streelman and .

John Merrick. Superb ball-striker that can blast it. Should be able to aim directly at pins from shorter distances than most of the field.

Joe Ogilvie. Has cashed in 11 of last 12 starts, including a T-14 at the Viking.

26+

Marc Turnesa. The rookie led the field in putting at the Viking, but his GIR is sure to rise at Atunyote, which means his putting prowess is neutralized. Plus, although Kevin Streelman and Martin Laird have turned the trick this year, you don't see rookies come out of nowhere and staple back-to-back Top 10s on the board very often.

Ryuji Imada. The T-17 at the 30-man TOUR Championship is OK but that T-13 at the 115-player Deutsche Bank is the truer example that Imada has regained some consistency in his game.

Bo Van Pelt. It's likely the BVP is lickin' his chops at the Fall Series, when he's had a pattern of success. Coming off a T-22 at the Viking.

Charles Warren. Long-hitting ball-striker should benefit from slower greens the first couple of days. For what it's worth, he also finished T-10 at last year's Turning Stone.

Tom Scherrer. Has already admitted that he hopes to gain a little momentum heading into Q School. (Yikes.) He's a local guy so he'll have plenty of support this week. Hey, sometimes I get sentimental. Plus, I haven't shown much love for Scherrer this year. Not that he deserved much.

MC

Rod Pampling. The Aussie didn't play in last year's Fall Series and comes in riding three straight missed cuts, his first such streak in over four years.

Will MacKenzie. He might have to be reminded that he won the Viking two weeks ago. Beware.

Steve Lowery. Of the golfers in the field that played in all seven Fall Series events last year, no one is higher on the current money list; Lowery ranks 55th. He enters having missed his last four cuts, his longest stretch since March 2005.

Parker McLachlin. Since winning in Reno, has gone MC-MC-MC, so it's a good thing he decided to play at Montreux, isn't it?

Robert Garrigus. Withdrew from the Viking with a wrist injury. Wicked long but the rough could lead to another WD.

Ned Said, ". - RESULTS

YAHOO!
Finished 856th (99th percentile).

PGATour.com
Incomplete. Failed to submit teams a couple of times.

ESPN.com
Finished 2,647th (99.5 percentile). Blames it on a bad third segment. (Insert joke here.)

Bubble Boys

How would you like to earn over $800,000 and occupy a mere three-tenths of one percent of your company's payroll? And that's actually a rounded-up figure of where Mr. #125 on the money list usually winds up on an annual basis. This year, the magic number is estimated to land in the range of $800-$840K. Although total prize money has grown every year since 1975, there have been some deviations on where the 125th-ranked golfer finishes. Most recently, Jay Williamson banked over $515K in 2002 when the overall purse was $198,950,000. The following year, when the purse rose to $224,700,000, Esteban Toledo pocketed a little over $487K, or about $28K less than Williamson the year before. Last year's threshold was a record-high $785,180.

In 2008, 109 golfers have already earned over $800,000. In fact, there is a chasm between Charley Hoffman, who sits 109th with $830,129 (and is competing at this week's Dunhill Links in Europe) and Mark Calcavecchia in 110th-place, with $784,810. Of course, not everyone on the bubble needs to crack the Top 125 for a 2009 PGA Tour card. Calc, for one, is exempt through next year via his 2007 PODS title. Zach Johnson (122nd) has a job through 2012 thanks to his Masters victory last year. And Todd Hamilton (147th) has no worries since his 2004 British Open win secured full playing privileges through next season.

In this space until the end of the season, you'll get a snapshot of the "Bubble Boys" who are often motivated more by fear than success. Every year, at least a couple of stories are written at this time. Last year, Mark Hensby made news when he finished solo 2nd in Scottsdale, an absolute must since he had forgotten to apply for Q School. (I still don't know how that happens in this age of player-agents, reps and entourages. Doesn't someone in Hensby's posse have a PDA with bells and whistles for important reminders?) Shigeki Maruyama also made a mad dash, with a T-2 at the Ginn sur Mer, allowing him to withdraw from the season-ending CMNC. Alas, Hensby is now 164th on the money list and needs to earn about $500K to avoid Q School, assuming he applied; and Maruyama is playing in Japan these days despite his spot 198th on the money list.

For each remaining event in the Fall Series, I will give sort out the simple data for the guys on both sides of the bubble that are scheduled to play in the event covered in my weekly previews. Everyone listed is in danger of losing his tour card. So, regardless if they are scheduled to play, I will ignore guys like Calc and ZJ since they are exempt for 2009. Meanwhile, a guy like David Toms ($779,285) is 111th on the money list but is not in the field at the Turning Stone, so you will not see him listed below.

This information should give the remaining fantasy formats insight into playing time expectations and draft leagues a head start on downgrading guys that finish outside the Top 125.

Inside Top 125
Bo Van Pelt
Earnings: $770,078
Money List: 112th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 4

Jay Williamson
Earnings: $758,862
Money List: 114th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 6

Tim Wilkinson
Earnings: $757,964
Money List: 115th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Brad Adamonis
Earnings: $756,053
Money List: 116th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Shane Bertsch
Earnings: $742,476
Money List: 117th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0 (injured)

Martin Laird
Earnings: $732,560
Money List: 118th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Patrick Sheehan
Earnings: $723,454
Money List: 119th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Tim Petrovic
Earnings: $705,477
Money List: 120th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 5

Matt Jones
Earnings: $703,000
Money List: 121st
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Rich Beem
Earnings: $673,372
Money List: 124th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 6

Vaughn Taylor
Earnings: $645,466
Money List: 125th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 4

126-150
Jason Gore
Earnings: $644,894
Money List: 126th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 3

Charles Warren
Earnings: $644,065
Money List: 127th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 4

Dustin Johnson
Earnings: $635,645
Money List: 128th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Jason Day
Earnings: $591,335
Money List: 129th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Marc Turnesa
Earnings: $580,052
Money List: 130th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

James Driscoll
Earnings: $577,326
Money List: 131st
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Michael Allen
Earnings: $568,346
Money List: 132nd
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 5

Bob Estes
Earnings: $542,745
Money List: 135th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 6

J.J. Henry
Earnings: $533,600
Money List: 136th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 2

Jesper Parnevik
Earnings: $529,940
Money List: 137th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 6

Joe Durant
Earnings: $519,238
Money List: 138th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 6

Jon Mills
Earnings: $489,510
Money List: 140th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Frank Lickliter II
Earnings: $488,740
Money List: 141st
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 7

Jeff Overton
Earnings: $462,434
Money List: 142nd
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 6

Kevin Stadler
Earnings: $458,980
Money List: 143rd
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 6

Lee Janzen
Earnings: $447,941
Money List: 144th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 5

Justin Bolli
Earnings: $438,022
Money List: 146th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Chris DiMarco
Earnings: $426,964
Money List: 149th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

Notables 151+
Davis Love III
Earnings: $377,548
Money List: 155th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0 (injured)

Nick Flanagan
Earnings: $348,721
Money List: 159th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 4

Ryan Armour
Earnings: $333,348
Money List: 160th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 5

Robert Garrigus
Earnings: $326,988
Money List: 161st
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 5

Mark Hensby
Earnings: $314,337
Money List: 164th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 5

J.P. Hayes
Earnings: $302,998
Money List: 166th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 6

Jeff Maggert
Earnings: $290,422
Money List: 168th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 5

Cameron Beckman
Earnings: $278,211
Money List: 172nd
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 7

Brandt Jobe
Earnings: $254,114
Money List: 175th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0 (injured)

Mathias Gronberg
Earnings: $166,639
Money List: 196th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 7

Richard Johnson
Earnings: $141,393
Money List: 205th
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 0

David Duval
Earnings: $83,727
Money List: 222nd
# of starts in 2007 Fall Series: 2

RESHUFFLE - Q School/Nationwide Tour

The final reshuffle was made at the conclusion of the Viking Classic; therefore, only earnings will be updated here from now on. Golfers whose earnings are in bold type are projected to have secured a 2009 PGA Tour card. From the fantasy perspective, this list provides non-weekly formats a projected value (i.e. likelihood of qualifying for a field on merit, ability to set schedule) of golfers playing out of this category.

Final "number." Golfer, 2008 earnings

* - In the field at the Turning Stone

FINAL RANK

1. *Nicholas Thompson, $1,576,526
2. *John Merrick, $1,269,587
3. *Kevin Streelman, $1,126,165
4. *Michael Letzig, $858,477
5. *Tim Wilkinson, $757,964
6. *Brad Adamonis, $756,053
7. *Martin Laird, $732,560
8. *Patrick Sheehan, $723,454
9. *Matt Jones, $703,000
10. *Dustin Johnson, $635,645
11. *Jason Day, $591,335
12. *Marc Turnesa, $580,052
13. *James Driscoll, $577,326
14. *Jon Mills, $489,510
15. *Frank Lickliter II, $488,740
16. Roland Thatcher, $445,212 (out until 2009)
17. *Justin Bolli, $438,022
18. *Tag Ridings, $400,089
19. *Y.E. Yang, $392,048
20. *Brett Rumford, $373,579
21. *Scott Sterling, $319,912
22. *Carlos Franco, $316,340
23. *Omar Uresti, $279,110
24. *Brenden Pappas, $247,934
25. *Kenneth Ferrie, $228,398
26. *Jin Park, $227,102
27. *Kent Jones, $215,671
28. *John Riegger, $215,408
29. *Bob Sowards, $189,637
30. *Jimmy Walker, $173,759
31. *Chad Collins, $168,605
32. *Brad Elder, $149,661
33. *Todd Demsey, $146,734
34. *Tom Scherrer, $136,131
35. *Chris Stroud, $129,845
36. Alejandro Canizares, $125,539
37. *David Lutterus, $120,088
38. *Jim McGovern, $114,843
39. *Kyle Thompson, $109,930
40. *Paul Claxton, $93,323
41. *Michael Bradley, $77,584
42. *Jason Allred, $71,953
43. *Cody Freeman, $55,833
44. *Ron Whittaker, $48,217
45. Jonathan Kaye, $41,375 (possibly out until 2009)
46. *Travis Perkins, $36,583
47. *Tommy Gainey, $30,185
48. Duffy Waldorf, $7,350 (out until 2009)
49. Carl Paulson, $0 (hasn't played anywhere since 2005)

Medical Extensions

Golfer (PRIORITY RANKING) - has: # of events played/$ earned . remaining: # of events remaining under extension/$ remaining unearned

* - In the field at Turning Stone

Ben Crane [MAJOR) - has met his requirement and will retain this status for the remainder of 2008
Jason Bohn (MAJOR) - has met his requirement and will retain this status for the remainder of 2008
*Brett Quigley (MAJOR) - has met his requirement and will retain this status for the remainder of 2008
*Dudley Hart (MAJOR) - has met his requirement and will retain this status for the remainder of 2008
Chris Perry (MAJOR) - has: 0/$0 . remaining: 18/$515,445
Joey Snyder III (MAJOR) - has: 0/$0 . remaining: 25/$647,466
*Brandt Jobe (MAJOR) - has: 17/$254,114 . remaining: 6/$520,050
David Berganio, Jr. (MAJOR) - has: 1/$0 . remaining: 5/$346,345
Hank Kuehne (MAJOR) - has: 0/$0 . remaining: 18/$636,221
*Shane Bertsch (MAJOR) - has: 24/$742,476 . remaining: 4/$2,944
Paul Azinger (MAJOR) - has: 8/$42,590 . remaining: 6/$568,521
Wes Short, Jr. (MAJOR) - has: 0/$0 . remaining: 15/$743,061
*David Duval (MAJOR) - has: 16/$83,727 . remaining: 4/$629,508
Patrick Moore (NATIONWIDE/3 WINS) - has: 0/$0 . remaining: 12/$452,636
Jonathan Kaye (Q SCHOOL/NATIONWIDE) - has: 8/$41,375 . remaining: 13/$743,805
*Michael Bradley (Q SCHOOL/NATIONWIDE) - has: 10/$77,584 . remaining: 4/$675,707
Carl Paulson (Q SCHOOL/NATIONWIDE) - has: 0/$0 . remaining: 15/$428,522

Birthdays - October 1-7

10/1 . Willie Wood (48); Scott Gutschewski (32)
10/2 . John Cook (51); George McNeill (33)
10/3 . Fred Couples (49); Cliff Kresge (40)
10/4 . Peter Hanson (31)
10/5 . none
10/6 . Bob May (40)
10/7 . none

The 19th Hole

After Vijay Singh had officially secured the FedExCup trophy, he said that his next event would be the Father/Son Challenge in early December, eschewing the PGA Tour's Fall Series (as expected) but also tournaments in Malaysia and China on the Asian Tour, where he was given honorary membership less than seven months ago. Instead, Singh is going to chill for a couple of months, citing doctor's orders to rest his left forearm due to tendonitis. (After the Father/Son, he'll play in the superstar clambake that is the Chevron World Challenge.)

It was on March 4 that Singh said, "It's an honor to become an honorary member of the Asian Tour. The Tour has grown and it'll get stronger and stronger. . I'll try to come back and play here more often and support the Asian Tour." (Citation: pgatour.com) Singh shrewdly injected the conditional "try to" into his statement, but giddy tour officials reacted as if Singh would become a regular presence. It's one thing if Singh pulls out of a PGA Tour event with an injury, quite another when an entire tour is stood up. In the least, Singh should make a cameo at one or both of the events to honor his word about supporting the tour. It would obviously connect with the spirit of his honorary membership. And who knows, now that the European Tour is going to require 12 starts instead of 11 to retain membership, Singh might even be ready to earlier than he thought and tee it up before the Father/Son. (The HSBC Champions in China is co-sponsored by the European Tour.)

The Euro Tour did a great job of not compromising its rank and file when increasing the minimum number of starts for members for the 2009 season. Leaving it at 11 would have failed to address the allure created by the Race to Dubai, but adding just one event has opened the door for adventurous internationals to give it a go. Meanwhile, behind that headline, I was expecting an increase in sponsor's invitations, but the absence of that (for now) is a clear sign that the tour will not sell its soul.

So now we await to see if American-domiciled fantasy golf games will add a European Tour event or three to its roster. There is no offseason in golf, my friends.

"Starter" ANSWER: Nick Price led the money list in 1993 and 1994, finished 30th in 1995 and 125th in 2005. No other golfer qualifies for at least two of the three exact achievement levels, although Andrew Magee somehow finished 30th in 1997 and 1998. I'm not sure if Magee's trick is harder or easier to pull off than Greg Norman, Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh, who all led the tour in earnings in multiple years as well during this period.

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