Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 10,500 Jobs in September, Employment Forecast Projects 4.2% Decline in 2020

The Texas Employment Forecast projects jobs will decline 4.2% this year

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has announced that Texas added 10,500 jobs in September.

According to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers, the state has also lost 719,500 jobs this year.

The Texas Employment Forecast projects jobs will decline 4.2% this year using a top-down model based on national forecasts, COVID-19 infection rates and oil futures prices.

Based on the forecast, 539,000 jobs will be lost in Texas this year, and employment in December 2020 will be 12.4 million.

This forecast has improved slightly from a projected decline of 4.8% in August.

"The Texas economy continues to recover from sharp declines earlier in the year, although a recent uptick in COVID-19 cases in North Texas and El Paso, along with a rise in  hospitalizations in the state, threatens to slow the pace of recovery in the fourth quarter," Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist, said. "Currently, we expect job growth to be about 6.1 percent in the last three months of the year. If the recent rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations continues, however, job growth will likely be weaker."

Texas jobs grew 1% in September after increasing a revised 8% in August, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said. Employment is down 7.4% this year.

The Texas unemployment rate increased from 6.8% in August to 8.3% in September. The state unemployment rate is now closer to the national rate of 7.9%, which likely reflects the slower pace of growth in Texas since COVID-19 cases surged in the state from mid-June to mid-July, according to Phillips. 

Jobs in leisure and hospitality declined significantly in July after bouncing back in May and June. Revised August data showed a mild increase rather than a slight decrease, and September data showed a further pickup in growth, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said.  

After declining for 16 consecutive months, mining jobs increased slightly, suggesting that the oil and gas sector may be flattening out after a prolonged decline, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said.

Unemployment rates rose in all nine major Texas metro areas in September, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 

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