A complex storm system is making its way into North Texas. We know it is going to be very windy Thursday into Friday and we know temperatures will drop.
What we aren’t certain of is the potential for wintry precipitation or wet snow in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
The reason for the uncertainty is the inconsistency in the forecast models. Take a look at some different models and run times.
This is the RPM model from 06Z.[[502594051,C,600,338]]
It shows snow in Dallas, Tarrant and Denton counties with mixed precipitation in parts of Collin County.
The latest run of the RPM model shows a much smaller area getting the mixed precipitation.[[502595121,C,600,338]]
Here is the latest run of the NAM.[[502594301,C,600,338]]
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A rain snow mix in Parker County and points west.
The latest run of the GFS model.[[502594611,C,600,338]]
This model run barely shows any mixed precipitation Thursday night.
The latest run of the European Model. [[502664631,C]]
A brief rain/snow mix southwest of Fort Worth.
The Nam, GFS and European models are all consistent with the potential for heavy rain. If we get heavy rain, that could cool the air.
The colder the air the better the chance for mixed precipitation or wet snow in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
Based on all the model data, here is what I think could happen late Thursday into early Friday.[[502595001,C,600,338]]
The lingering questions are how much snow and road conditions. I think the ground is too warm to support any accumulation. But, it has been a while since North Texans have had to drive in winter weather, so I think the Friday morning rush hour will be bad.
Another component of the storm we are confident in is the high winds it will bring. Winds Thursday afternoon into Friday morning could gust anywhere between 30-50 mph. This would be strong enough the bring down tree limbs, or weak fences. Secure loose objects in your yard now.
