GOP Comeback May Start This Week in Upstate New York

The outcome of a special election will ripple far and wide

While President Obama's main focus is on the Detroit Big Three automakers and this week's G-20 economic summit in London, his mind won't be too far from paying attention to happenings in upstate New York on Tuesday. 

Republican State Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco and Democratic venture capitalist Scott Murphy battle in a special election to fill the House seat of now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.  The outcome holds possible ominous signs for both the president and the leader of the Republican Party -- appointed, at least -- Michael Steele. The stakes are certainly higher for Steele.  Even though the RNC unexpectedly raised more money in February than its Democratic counterpart, Steele's earlier stumbles will come back to haunt him if the GOP loses a seat that it had controlled for decades before losing it in 2006. 

The pressure is on. 

Two polls last week showed that Murphy has taken a small lead over Tedisco in the district that stretches from Poughkeepsie all the way up to the Canadian border. Worse, the trend lines seem to favor the Democrat: He's gained in support, while the better-known-in-the-district Tedisco peaked at 50 percent in the first public poll conducted in February -- and has dropped since then. Tedisco's initial refusal to say how he would have voted for the stimulus package gave Murphy an opening with which to pummel the Republican.  On the other hand, Tedisco used the uproar over A.I.G. to try to link Murphy's background in hedge funds and venture capitalism to the bonuses scandal. That, however, turned out to be a rather feeble attempt.   

Still, while the stakes are higher for the GOP, a loss in NY-20 isn't without risk for Obama and the Democrats. The president still remains personally popular. However, frustration grows over the multiple bailouts -- and the fact that the economy hasn't yet turned around. Republicans retaking the seat -- especially considering that Obama has cut an ad endorsing Murphy -- would be spun by the GOP and portrayed in the media -- as a sign of a backlash to Obama's runaway spending. That could also reinforce a recent poll showing Republicans gaining parity with Democrats on the the generic congressional ballot question.  

 All eyes are on upstate New York over the next couple of days. 

 New York writer Robert A. George blogs at Ragged Thots.

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