Recession in Waiting? These Two Key Charts Are Worth Watching

A strong majority, 74%, of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released Monday, mostly didn't share Trump's optimistic outlook for the economy, though they generally saw recession coming later than they did in a survey taken in February. Thirty-four percent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25% in the February survey.Another 38% of those polled predicted that recession will occur next year, down slightly from 42% in February. Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year.In February, 77% of the economists expected a recession either this year, next year or in 2021.  Continue reading...