If We're All So Unhappy With Government, Why Do Incumbents Keep Winning?

It is the season for announcing primary challenges at many levels of politics, so I thought I'd step in with news that could save those of you considering a run a ton of time and vast piles of money: You are almost certainly going to fail.I share this not as a buzz-kill meant to drown dreams, but as a statement of fact. I offer it not to dissuade, but to enlighten.In the talk show trade, there is a clocklike rhythm of audience speculation that certain politicians have become vulnerable due to some recent action (or inaction) that riled certain corners of the base."We've got him/her now," the battle cry begins. "Finally we can replace [insert name here] with the kind of [insert office here] that we really need."Then some brave souls armor up for battle, surrounded by cheering friends and supporters assuring the candidates that they are going to be the next stunning upset.Then they get blown away by 30 points, if not more.Why does this happen? If we are so royally dissatisfied with so many strata of government, you'd think incumbents would be ripe for the plucking in almost every election cycle.But there's a deep secret. When we talk about Congress or the Texas Legislature, for example, we may lament their failings collectively, but we retain an umbilical fondness for our own representatives.That bond is tough to crack. In the remaining months of this year, primary challengers will hear the siren song of inner circles telling them they just know the time is right to topple this incumbent or that.Over the years, I have watched countless candidacies launch because some circle of friends, associates or party activists had pipe dreams of dislodging entrenched officials on the fuel of some gripe or another.Here is the bottom line for anyone considering such an attempt: Success is possible only if there is a broad desire to fire the incumbent.The challenger's attributes do not matter. Pockets of discontent do not matter. I have watched countless challengers of considerable talent ride waves of energy based on the testimony of faithful fans, only to get hammered on primary election day. Why? Because there was not sufficient yearning to fire the incumbent.If you doubt me, ask Gov. Kay Bailey Hutchison. Oh, that's right, that didn't happen. What did happen was the most popular politician in Texas history tried to unseat Rick Perry and lost by 21 points. There was nothing wrong with Sen. Hutchison, who was properly revered. But Texans loved her in Washington and sufficiently valued Perry in Austin. As such, he was unbeatable.So are most incumbents today. Challengers should know that if there is no burning voter desire to return their chosen targets to private life, they will have to create that desire. And that's a tall order, usually involving expensive barrages of brutal negative ads — and those sometimes backfire.This is not to say long-shot primary challenges are of no value. Plenty of candidates are gathering steam right now for efforts they have to know are electorally futile.So why do it? To make connections for future races, to give voice to voters deemed underrepresented, to scratch a civic itch. All are noble pursuits. But as we enter the first election cycle of the Trump era, everyone needs to remember that the magnets of incumbency remain strong, and prospects for knocking off big names remain remote.Nothing is impossible, but all hopefuls should know what they face, and all voters should know that if they envision hitching themselves to a challenger's wagon, they probably need about twice the effort and luck they think.Mark Davis is a radio host and frequent contributor to The Dallas Morning News. The Mark Davis Show airs from 7 to 10 a.m. weekdays on KSKY-AM (660). Email: markdavisshow@gmail.comWhat's your view?Got an opinion about this issue? Send a letter to the editor, and you just might get published.  Continue reading...