Texas at ‘Elevated Risk' of Summer Power Shortages, Potential Outages, Regulators Warn

A report released Wednesday by the authority that regulates electric reliability in North America warns that Texas is at an “elevated risk” of energy shortages and potential power outages this summer.

That warning comes just a little more than three months after the worst energy crisis in Texas history, the February winter storm power outages that left millions of Texans freezing inside their homes, caused more than $100 billion in damage, and contributed to more than 150 deaths.

In its 2021 “Summer Reliability Assessment” the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) said the Texas grid managed by ERCOT should be able to supply enough power under normal expected operating conditions.

But the report cautions that Texas is expected to see above-normal temperatures this summer and a higher risk of drought across much of the state, potentially increasing demand for power and putting more strain on the grid.

Power plants often suffer more outages under the stress of extreme temperatures and drought can reduce the amount of cooling water available to power plants. The NERC report said those factors combined with other potential problems, such as days of low wind, reducing wind energy output, could lead to electricity shortages.

When the level of electric demand is at risk of exceeding the amount of available supply ERCOT is forced to implement rolling power outages which are designed to preserve the grid and prevent a more damaging uncontrolled widespread blackout.

From new records revealing the causes of the massive February power outages to new interviews revealing potential solutions, NBC 5 Investigates gets to the bottom of the state's power problems in the ongoing streaming series "Powerless," available here.

Some electricity experts have recently told NBC 5 Investigates they are increasingly worried about this summer and the possibility that a string of extremely hot days could mix with low winds and nights where temperatures don’t cool off much.

“If that happens this year, I'll be very concerned”, said Alison Silverstein, an energy consultant and former advisor to the Chairman of the Texas Public Utility Commission and the Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

“Maybe we get lucky and none of those things happen, or maybe we get unlucky and all of that happens at the same time,” Silverstein said.

Silverstein said planners must consider many more extreme scenarios in their seasonal forecasts and look at ways to effectively deal with a wider range of wild weather swings.

NERC warned that the highest risk of forced power outages in Texas would likely be from 3 p.m. to 8 p.m., the hours when demand typically peaks and winds can sometimes dip in the early afternoon. The report cautioned that ERCOT should look at ways to mitigate that concern including having more traditional power plants ready to meet potential wind shortfalls.

“…with a significant portion of electricity supply coming from wind generation, operators must have sufficient flexible resources to cover periods of low-wind output.” The NERC report said.

In recent weeks ERCOT has said its own summer assessments show a less than 1% chance of forced outages this summer, even under new “extreme demand scenarios” ERCOT planners have considered in their forecasting following the damaging winter storm.

ERCOT said it expects the number of available power reserves to be slightly higher than last summer, largely due to new solar power generation expected to be online. Still, ERCOT has acknowledged that unforeseen weather conditions could pose some risk of shortfalls and rolling outages.

ERCOT said Wednesday it plans a 7 p.m. test of its emergency notification system as it prepares for the summer season. Test messages will appear on ERCOT’s Twitter feed, mobile app, and website. Test emergency alert mails will also be sent to organizations on ERCOT’s distribution list.

During the winter storm, ERCOT was criticized for failing to provide a clear warning that power outages might be imminent and for posting energy conservation messages on social media that seemed to downplay the seriousness of the potential risks.

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Other Reports From NBC 5 Investigates

• ERCOT Vows to Investigate Early Summer Power Plant Breakdowns (June 14)
• What Texas Lawmakers Did (And Did Not Do) to Address the Power Crisis (June 1)
• Texas at ‘Elevated Risk' of Summer Power Shortages, Potential Outages, Regulators Warn (May 27)
• NBC 5 Investigates: How Texas Wind Power Could Work Better in Cold Weather (May 20)
• NBC 5 Investigates How Colder States Avoid Winter Blackouts (May 12)
• NBC 5 Investigates Which Power Plants Left Texans Powerless in February (April 29)
• ERCOT Had Concerns About Power Supplies Before Tuesday's Conservation Alert (April 15)
• Texas Power Conservation Alert Raises Alarm Across Texas (April 14)
• NBC 5 Investigates: U.S. Senate Probes Texas Power Outages (March 12)
• Texas Speaker Unveils Plan to Prevent Repeat of State's Energy Crisis (March 9)
• Many Power Plants Didn't Meet Winter Recommendations in Past Seasons (March 5)
• Lawmakers Grill ERCOT CEO on First Day of Power Crisis Hearings (Feb. 26)
• ERCOT: Texas Was 4 Minutes and 37 Seconds Away From a Blackout That Could Have Lasted Months (Feb. 25)
• Abbott Calls for Laws to Prevent Power Crisis Repeat (Feb. 25)
• ERCOT Messages Reveal Actions Prior to Massive Power Outage (Feb. 20)
• Customers Say Oncor's ‘Rolling Outage' Message Left Them Confused, Angry (Feb. 19)
• ERCOT CEO Defends Actions Leading Up to Winter Storm, Record Outages (Feb. 19)
• Federal Regulators Plan to Investigate Massive Texas Power Outage (Feb. 18)
• ERCOT Didn't Conduct On-Site Inspections of Power Plants to Verify Winter Preparedness (Feb. 18)
• What Happened to ‘the Energy Capital of the World' During This Winter Event? (Feb. 16)
• Power Outages and Texas Electric Emergency Explained (Feb. 15)