Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections are a good measure of what to expect from players in the upcoming baseball season. We'll take a look at the Rangers' projections on a position-by-position basis. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Derek Holland had great expectations for 2015 after he missed most of 2014 only to debut in September and throw together a handful of fantastic starts without the benefit of a spring training or anything. Instead, Holland left his season debut after one inning with a shoulder injury and returned in August to a bag of mixed results that culminated with a terrible stretch run and a horrendous postseason start.
Holland:18 starts, 100 2/3 innings pitched, 85 strikeouts, 30 walks, 14 home runs, 4.29 ERA, 7.6 K/9 innings, 2.68 BB/9 innings
The Rangers are hoping Holland can realize his full potential, but at some point you have to wonder what that potential is. We thought we'd seen it in 2013 when he threw a career-high 213 innings and posted a 3.42 ERA. Then, he teased us in his five starts in 2014 with a 1.46 ERA only to get injured again in 2015.
At his best, Holland is a No. 2 starter, but he's probably more in line with a borderline No. 3 starter or a great No. 4, and that's what the Rangers are hoping he'll be this year.