Scientific Breakdown of Darvish - NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth
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Scientific Breakdown of Darvish



    We all love science when it's mixed with sports and sabermetrics and all of that fun stuff.

    So why not use computers and science, and other highfalutin things to figure out what Yu Darvish might project to as a starter in Major League Baseball.

    For those of you living under a rock, Darvish is the 25-year-old Japanese phenom who has been dominating Japanese baseball since he was 18 years old. The Texas Rangers won the bidding process to have the rights to exclusively negotiate with Darvish for the low, bargain price of $51.7 million. Now they have to figure out how much they'll actually pay Darvish.

    If he does in fact end up in Arlington, which at this point is basically a done deal, Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory has an idea of how Darvish might do with the Rangers for the next five years. (Thanks to ESPNDallas' Richard Durrett for finding this gem).

    Using his computer-model projections, this is what Szymborski sees in Darvish's future as he acclimates himself to the American brand of baseball. Note: WAR is "wins above replacement (player)" meaning the wins Darvish will give the Rangers that someone other than him wouldn't get.

    2012: 13-7, 3.62 ERA with 46 walks, 169 strikeouts and a 4.5 WAR
    2013: 13-7, 3.55 ERA with 44 walks, 167 strikeouts and a 4.7 WAR
    2014: 13-7, 3.52 ERA with 42 walks, 163 strikeouts and a 4.6 WAR
    2015: 12-6, 3.54 ERA with 39 walks, 153 strikeouts and a 4.3 WAR
    2016: 11-6, 3.46 ERA with 38 walks, 150 strikeouts and a 4.3 WAR

    Darvish is loaded with filthy stuff. The 6-5 hurler touches 95 mph with his fastball, of which he throws the two-seam and four-seam variety. He also has a curve, a slurve, a splitter and the ever-mysterious "gyroball" which is a staple of the Japanese imports.

    So will we be seeing Darvish come to the states and posting his customary 200-plus strikeouts and sub-2.00 ERAs? It's not likely, but a mid-3.00 ERA in Arlington is definitely not a bad thing.