A simple look at the final result of Martin Perez's two starts this year would give reason for confidence that the young lefty has fully bounced back from his Tommy John surgery in 2014.
But a deeper look at the outings shows something quite different — reason for some pretty serious concern.
The Rangers are counting heavily on Perez to be a really solid starter this year, especially until Yu Darvish returns in late May or early June, but so far his success could largely be chalked up to being fortunate.
On the surface, Perez's outing Sunday — 6 1/3 innings and three runs allowed — looks pretty decent. But what you don't see there is the five walks and no strikeouts nor the three double play groundballs he induced.
He's now cashed in on five double plays this year in his two starts, but he has three strikeouts on the year — all in his season debut.
In short, that's not a sustainable rate to be successful. It's not even close. He's been the beneficiary of a very low BABIP by opponents, or batting average on balls in play. If he keeps up this type of pitching and lack of command, Perez is going to be exposed sooner rather than later, and it's not going to be pretty for the Rangers.