ESPN's Dan Szymborski is a computer and stat guru, and we love getting a look at his projections. Here are his numbers for the 2014 Texas Rangers.
Position: No. 4 starter
Player: Alexi Ogando, RHP
Last year: 7-4 record, 3.11 ERA, 72 strikeouts, 41 walks, 104 1/3 innings pitched, 18 starts (23 games)
2014 projections: 4.15 ERA, 85 strikeouts, 35 walks, 108 1/3 innings, 8.64 hits/9 innings, 7.06 K/9 innings, 17 starts (36 games)
As we've discussed several times before, Ogando's role is a bit of a mystery moving forward. But with the Rangers' injury trouble in the rotation, it almost seems to be a lock that Ogando will be in the rotation when the Rangers open the regular season on March 31. Is he better suited in the bullpen? Yes, that seems to be the case. As you'll notice in these projections, Ogando is projected to make more relief appearances than starts in 2014, and if that happens that means the rotation is probably in pretty good shape.
His projected, especially for ERA, seem to be a bit out of whack. You're talking about a guy that has never had an ERA above 3.51, so to think about him having one over 4.00 seems hard to envision. If that happens, it won't be a good season for the versatile Ogando.