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Against the Odds: Week 11

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    NEWSLETTERS

    OK, we all know betting on sports is illegal in 46 states, so don't do it unless you're in Vegas, Oregon, Montana or Delaware, but if you're going, you can make these bets for me.

    1. Buffalo at Miami (-2.5), Sunday, noon — How far the Buffalo Bills have fallen. After jumping out of the gates to a torrid start that included a home win over New England and putting up some sick offensive numbers behind Fred Jackson and Ryan Fitzpatrick, things have turned sour in a hurry for the Bills. They've been blown out in two straight games in losses to the Cowboys and Jets and their defense has stopped getting turnovers, but kept on giving up yards. That won't change on Sunday as Reggie Bush should be in line for a big game, as should Brandon Marshall who is clearly QB Matt Moore's favorite target.

    2. Cincinnati (+7.5) at Baltimore, Sunday, noon — The Bengals probably won't win this game, and they are not helped by the expected absence of rookie wide receiver A.J. Green because of injury. But they were in last week's game against the Steelers the entire time, and yes the Ravens have swept the Steelers this year but they will be without their emotional leader and most impactful defensive player Ray Lewis, who is also battling injury. I see Baltimore winning the game by a field goal or touchdown, which of course would not cover the spread.

    3. Oakland (-1.5) at Minnesota, Sunday, noon — Minnesota is just not good. Yes, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson, but that's pretty much their calling card right now. Oakland has seen a career resurgence from Carson Palmer at quarterback, who should have a big game against a struggling, wounded Minnesota pass defense. Darren McFadden won't return from his injury, but as we saw last week it won't really matter because Michael Bush is a plenty capable replacement for the Raiders at running back.

    4. Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14.5), Sunday, noon — The Battle of the Bays won't be much of a battle. I've never seen an NFL team that covers such large spreads with such consistency. The Packers are just a whole lot better than any other team in the league. The only way the Packers don't cover this is if they get up big early and then get bored and slip up but they have to do that thus far, and I don't see it starting on Sunday.

    5. Dallas (-7.5) at Washington, Sunday, noon — The Cowboys more than a touchdown favorite on the road at the rival Redskins? Yup. The Redskins are that horrible, especially offensively where they just simply cannot the move the ball. Rex Grossman is back under center and couldn't do anything in the teams' first meeting in Arlington. Back then, the Redskins had a running game with Tim Hightower. Now, he's out for the season and the Redskins are struggling to get anything going offensively. Could Tashard Choice see some time for the Skins? Maybe so, but it won't matter. The Cowboys should win this one going away.